Friday, December 22, 2017

William Bernstein's Conditions for Share market Booms and Crashes



"Do not expect high returns without high risk. Do not expect safety without corresponding low returns. Further, when the political and economic outlook is the brightest, returns are the lowest. And it is when things look the darkest that returns are the highest." - Bernstein

Movies as better predictors of Grey Swan Events

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2017/12/20/terminators-to-helicopter-money-in-nomuras-10-grey-swans-for-2018

Easy to dismiss, yet the world has the necessary ingredients for it to emerge, Nomura said. 
Not scary enough? A 1975 film Rollerball, again set in 2018, is the story about a global energy monopoly that wishes to replace warfare with a violent sport called Rollerball—two teams race around a track on roller skates attacking each other.
The story portrays a corporate giant trying to distract people behind the veneer of democracy and competition, Nomura wrote. For it to come true, the world would need one or two global companies emerging to dominate the world, ideally in sectors that can distract us with fake news, fun games and constant distractions.