William Bernstein's Conditions for Share market Booms and Crashes

"Do not expect high returns without high risk. Do not expect safety without corresponding low returns. Further, when the political and economic outlook is the brightest, returns are the lowest. And it is when things look the darkest that returns are the highest." - Bernstein

Movies as better predictors of Grey Swan Events

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2017/12/20/terminators-to-helicopter-money-in-nomuras-10-grey-swans-for-2018

Easy to dismiss, yet the world has the necessary ingredients for it to emerge, Nomura said. 

Not scary enough? A 1975 film Rollerball, again set in 2018, is the story about a global energy monopoly that wishes to replace warfare with a violent sport called Rollerball—two teams race around a track on roller skates attacking each other.

The story portrays a corporate giant trying to distract people behind the veneer of democracy and competition, Nomura wrote. For it to come true, the world would need one or two global companies emerging to dominate the world, ideally in sectors that can distract us with fake news, fun games and constant distractions.

Sectors with High Growth Potential [Edelweiss Report]

Source: Edelweiss Report, India Strategy Report Aug 2017

Second chapter for Renaissance man Jim Simons

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/12/18/jim-simons-the-numbers-king

On shore cost of production of oil

Source: Economist.com

Importance of cash holdings

Perhaps one of the most remarkable things (among many) of the Baupost track record is that it is routine for them to hold 30% to 50% in cash while they are looking for things to buy. To generate the types of returns they have for over three decades with a huge percentage of the portfolio in cash offers a strong challenge to the traditional mantra that portfolio managers should be fully invested at all times. When one of Klarman’s chief lieutenants retired last year, he discussed the use of cash in his farewell letter saying, “one of the most common misconceptions regarding Baupost is that most outsiders think we have generated good risk adjusted returns despite holding cash. Most insiders, on the other hand, believe we have generated those returns BECAUSE of that cash. Without that cash, it would be impossible to deploy capital when we enter a tide market and great opportunities become widespread.” In other words, cash has protective and option value, keeping portfolios safe during dislocations and providing liquidity to buy bargains with high margins of safety after the corrections occur. 

Uday Kotak interview on Bloomberg

What are the major trends in India’s financial services?

First is the formalization of finance. For instance, you see a reduction in the cash economy as less money is going into land and real assets, especially in rural India. That money is going into the formal economy which is a mega change which we are seeing.

The second trend which we are seeing is the broad-basing of financial services. As finance became broader, savers wanted to look at things in addition to or beyond bank deposits. So money is going into mutual funds, insurance and equities markets.

The third is digital. It, combined with Aadhaar (India’s biometric identification program), is a very potent force. We are at about 1,360 branches now. In the past we would have thought we would need about 5,000 branches. But with the digital economy, Aadhaar and customer behavior changes, we believe we can do with less.

Source: https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2017/11/20/billionaire-kotak-says-indian-banks-need-to-cut-costs-q-a